Beef kill: Strong cattle supply despite talk of numbers falling
Latest beef kill figures show weekly factory cattle supplies have edged above last year for the past two consecutive weeks.
Weekly kill numbers were running below the same weeks of last year since early May, but the past two consecutive weeks have bucked this trend with supplies edging above equivalent weeks of last year.
Kill numbers are remaining strong into the close of July but the latest UK Animal and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) beef market outlook affirmed initial industry supply forecasts from earlier this year, that data on cattle numbers suggests Irish cattle supply will reduce in the second half of 2024 and into 2025.
The graph below gives an overview of how weekly cattle supplies have been shaping up this year compared to last year:
Weekly kill numbers are being propped up by larger volumes of cows being slaughtered this year. The overall numbers of young bulls and steers slaughtered this year has fallen while the number of cows and heifers slaughter has both increased.
The AHDB report noted that globally, beef prices are experiencing "a tale of two halves".
Beef price in the northern hemisphere is being supported by lower US production while beef price in the southern hemisphere is under more pressure with "record [beef] output from Brazil and Australia" being attributed as a key factor causing this.
The table below gives an overview of last week's Irish beef kill and the cumulative Irish beef kill to date this year versus last year:
| Type | Week ending July 21, 2024 | Equivalent Last Year | Cumulative 2024 | Cumulative 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Bulls | 1,621 | 1,630 | 71,612 | 76,662 |
| Bulls | 754 | 659 | 16,165 | 16,002 |
| Steers | 12,652 | 13,743 | 341,630 | 346,008 |
| Cows | 8,569 | 7,169 | 243,942 | 221,073 |
| Heifers | 8,735 | 8,465 | 278,999 | 271,408 |
| Total | 32,331 | 31,666 | 952,348 | 931,153 |
Last week's cow kill was over 1,400 head above the same week of 2023 and the cumulative cow kill to date this year is almost 23,000 cows above last year.
Looking at overall supplies and this year's total beef kill to date stands at just over 952,000 head, which is just over 21,000 head of cattle above last year - indicating larger cow kills have been propping up cattle supplies to date this year.
The young bull and steer kills have fallen by approximately 5,000 head and 4,400 head respectively, while the heifer kill is up 7,500 head.
With industry forecast continuing to predict supply's tightening in the second half of this year and into next year, it will be interesting to see if and when these tends will materialise and what impact if any it could have on prices paid for Irish beef cattle.
