Beef kill: Tight cattle supply expected in the short-term
Bord Bia has forecasted beef kill numbers to tighten in the short-term, while firm demand for beef from key export markets is hoped to continue.
Bord Bia expects the prime cattle kill to fall by 46,000 head and the cow kill numbers to drop by 10,000 head in 2025 with the overall kill for the year expected to be around the 1.69 million head mark or 4% below 2024.
According to the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine's (DAFM's) AIMS database, as of August 1, 2024, there were 25,500 fewer cattle in the system from 18-24-months-of-age and 18,000 fewer cattle in the system from 12-18-months-of-age when compared to figures from the previous year.
Despite this Bord Bia prediction, kill numbers remain strong, with over 40,000 head slaughtered in the week ending Sunday, October 20.
The table below details the beef kill composition for the week ending Sunday, October 20 versus the same week of last year and the cumulative beef kill this year versus last year:
| Type | Week end Sun, Oct 20 | Equivalent Last Year | Cumulative 2024 | Cumulative 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Bulls | 1,413 | 1,628 | 87,244 | 94,953 |
| Bulls | 526 | 518 | 24,084 | 23,273 |
| Steers | 17,185 | 18,093 | 554,734 | 562,885 |
| Cows | 9,829 | 9,356 | 349,184 | 316,482 |
| Heifers | 11,756 | 10,475 | 409,688 | 392,407 |
| Total | 40,709 | 40,070 | 1,424,934 | 1,390,000 |
Kill numbers have been forecast to drop off this year also but despite this, the cumulative kill this year is remaining almost 35,000 head above last year.
The graph below illustrates how the overall weekly beef kill had been increasing over the past nine weeks but is starting to level off:
As the graph above indicates, supplies have been trending ahead of 2023 levels since late August however this trend may well reverse in from now until the end of the year.
