The news is not good for John Deere with the release of its Q1 numbers, with the headline figure being that worldwide net sales and revenues for all products decreased 30% to $8.508 billion, down from $12.185 billion during that period.

The company runs its accountancy year three months ahead of everyone else, so it is the sales results for the final quarter of 2024 that were reported on in the Q1 figures.

Net sales for the equipment were $6.809 billion for the quarter, compared with $10.486 billion in 2024, a fall of 35%. This is in line with the experience of its main rivals, CNH and AGCO.

Looking ahead there is no sign of relief this year, with forecasts for a further major drop in 2025 for the North American market, with Europe and Asia set to see a smaller decline, and South America remains static.

This outlook is already being borne out by the latest figures from the CSO, which show a 12% drop in Irish tractor registrations for January while the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) in America reports a 15.8% decline for the month overall.

What stands out from the AEM figures is that the market is divided into into standard format tractors, referred to as 2WD, and larger articulated tractors, which it calls 4WD.

Standard format tractors dropped by 15% while the larger articulated units fell by 54%, an unprecedented figure and disturbing for factories producing these units.

The AEM figures reveal another significant change, that big tractors are the ones that are now suffering the larger declines, whereas for 2024 they remained much the same throughout the year and even showed some increase at times.

Last year saw a global decline in both wheat and corn prices, which might have delayed further investment in machinery.

However, with President Trump encouraging the use of carbon fuels and home-produced energy generally, there could well be a positive effect on corn prices, which is used for ethanol fuel.

In 2024 ethanol production in the US stood at 15.5 billion US gallons, slightly up from pre-covid levels, and with the transition to electric vehicles no longer US policy, that could be set to rise, with a consequent increase in demand and price for maize.

John Deere, in the meantime, is keeping its jets cool, noting that "Deere’s performance in the first quarter highlights its continued focus on optimizing inventory levels of both new and used equipment amidst the uncertain market conditions our customers are facing".

In this months earnings call, it did not pretend that the garden is rosy, indeed, little was said at all other than that machinery manufacturers are facing challenging times and so they are keeping their collective heads down and are waiting for the upturn.