Additional generation capacity has reduced the risk of electricity generation not meeting demand over the coming months, according to the EirGrid Winter Outlook for 2024/25.

The outlook also shows that there will be a reduced risk of power system alerts, following a number of improvements in the situation.

The winter outlook identifies the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) which is a mathematical formula, based on studies, of the number of hours in a period - typically per year - during which the available generation will be inadequate to meet demand.

The higher this number is, the greater the risk that there will not be enough generation available.

For the period November 4, 2024 until April 6, 2025, the LOLE stands at 3.6 hours, which is just outside the three hour annual standard set for Ireland.

The LOLE for this winter is down considerably from 21 hours last winter, and from 51 hours the winter before.

The improved situation is due to the continued implementation of the Security of Supply Programme, led by the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU).

Through this programme, 505MW of Temporary Emergency Generation (TEG) is now available as an additional generation option to engineers in EirGrid’s Control Centre if required.

In addition, 190MW of new gas fired generators and 270MW of new batteries will be available this winter delivered through auctions in the capacity market.

Director of System Operations at EirGrid, Diarmaid Gillespie said: "Ensuring there is sufficient generation to meet electricity demand can be a challenging task, particularly during the colder winter months.

"It’s positive to see that the situation has improved considerably this winter compared to previous years."

There does still remains a risk that the system will enter an amber alert at times, most likely at periods of low wind and low interconnector imports. The risk is much lower than the previous winter.

The probability of the system entering the Emergency State (Red) this winter, due to insufficient generation being available to meet the demand is deemed to be low this winter, according to EirGrid.

Grid alerts do not necessarily mean that electricity consumers will be without supply for any period.

Emergency protocols are in place with large energy users that would mitigate the impact on homes and businesses, where sufficient notice of an event can be provided (minimum of 1 hour).