The chance of Ireland experiencing extreme temperatures is now far more likely, according to the findings of new research.
The study, led by Maynooth University, developed a new model to predict the frequency, magnitude and geographical extent of extreme summer temperature events in Ireland.
It found that the likelihood of a temperature of more than 34°C, a value not yet recorded in Ireland, has changed from a once in 1,600-year event to a one in 28 year event between 1942 and 2020.
Researchers also estimated that a temperature event of 33° in Dublin’s Phoenix Park has gone from being a 1 in 180-year event in 1942 to a 1 in 9-year event in 2020.
The highest temperature ever recorded in Ireland was 33.3° at Kilkenny Castle, on June 26, 1887.
Temperatures
The study was carried out by a team of researchers led by Prof. Andrew Parnell and Dr. Dáire Healy of the Hamilton Institute at Maynooth University (MU).
The worked in collaboration with Prof. Peter Thorne of MU’s ICARUS Climate Research Centre and Prof. Jonathan Tawn of Lancaster University in the UK.
Prof. Parnell said that the findings underscore the urgency for societal adaptation to increasing extreme temperature events.
He added that such intense heat has profound implications for public health, agriculture, economic stability, and infrastructure resilience.
“We are often focussed on average changes, and particularly focus on the Paris Climate Agreement of 1.5°.
“What we have shown here is that the changes in extremes are much larger than the changes in the average, and are something we should be seriously concerned about,” he said.
The research team believe that the new model’s ability to predict spatial patterns of extreme events offers a powerful tool for policymakers and stakeholders to mitigate risks and plan for future climate scenarios.
The model captures both location and temporal variations in extreme daily maximum temperatures using new mathematical techniques.
Analysis by the research team identifies “a significant change in the behaviour of extreme temperature events over time”, which exceeds the observed changes in mean temperature levels over the same period.
“We found that spatial heatwave events over thresholds that are critical for society have become much larger, having at least doubled in extent for 28°, with this change increasing at more extreme temperatures,” Dr. Healy said.
The findings were detailed in a paper “Inference for Extreme Spatial Temperature Events in a Changing Climate with Application to Ireland” which was recently presented to The Royal Statistical Society.