Fianna Fáil MEP Billy Kelleher said there is "no doubt" that there is a lot of concern about the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) budget.
The Ireland South MEP was speaking ahead of the European Commission presenting its proposals on the next long-term EU budget, which is known as the Multi-Annual Finance Framework (MFF), on July 16.
The commission is also set to unveil proposals on the format of the next CAP post-2027 next month.
"If you look at the budget, the Common Agricultural Policy budget is about €40 billion per annum out of about €160 billion, so it's 25%.
"The issue here is if we have to start paying back bonds - the next generation EU [loans], we're going to have a big hole in the budget," Kelleher told Agriland in Brussels.
Kelleher said that EU Commissioner for budget Piotr Serafin was "quite open and upfront" on the challenges facing the next EU budget when he briefed MEPs from the Renew Europe group in Strasbourg.
"There's definitely going to be a shrinking of the schemes; there's going to be a realignment of them. There's about 41 different funding streams at the moment. I think a lot of them will be brought together.
"The question is whether or not the funding will stay the same," he said.
"From a Common Agricultural Policy perspective I'm worried because we're trying to look at an environmental pillar as well and if at the same time Commissioner Serafin and others are talking about reducing the number of schemes and payment paths, well then it's not more, it's going to be less in terms of funding programmes. That is a real worry," the MEP added.
Kelleher said that Commissioner Serafin will be taking a proposal for a standalone CAP programme.
"The question is whether the cohesion funds come back into it or not and other funds come back in under the Common Agricultural Policy.
"So you could have an increased CAP budget theoretically but expected to do an awful lot more which will mean to farmers direct payments could be reduced. So we've a lot of work to do at the moment," he said.
The Ireland South MEP said that the Irish presidency of the EU, in the second half of 2026, could play an important role in the negotiations around the MFF proposals.
"If we want to maintain farm incomes, support food security, make sure there's inter-generational transfer and that's there's a future in farming, if we want farmers to comply with the environmental obligations that we're placing on them, we have to increase the budget.
"Otherwise, we're expecting farmers to do an awful lot more with less. Then we're looking at the concept of enlargement [of the EU] down the road, so we have to be honest with people," Kelleher said.