Tight supplies and strong prices are forecast to dominate the lamb trade in the short term at least, according to Bord Bia sheep meat sector manager Seamus McMenamin.

Speaking to Agriland McMenamin said: "The start of the season certainly is looking like tight supplies and firm prices with the caveat of the increased competition from Australia and New Zealand as they come into Europe and the UK."

On the lamb trade currently, McMenamin said: "Quotes are at €9.00/kg at the moment and it does leave it very hard for us to compete in terms of against international product".

Despite this, he noted that "We are at the advantage of a significant tightening of sheep meat supplies in Europe and somewhat stable demand so that does help our case".

In a presentation on Irish sheep meat exports in 2024 at the Bord Bia Meat Marketing Seminar - which took place at the Killashee Hotel in Naas, Co. Kildare yesterday (Friday, December 17) - he highlighted that the value fell by €400 million or 6% and the volume fell by 56,000 tonnes or 23%.

In 2024, the total sheep kill was 2.5 million with the hogget kill falling by 73,000 head, the lamb kill falling by 240,000 head and the ewe/ram kill dropping by 65,000 head.

Looking at the international live trade for sheep in 2024, a total of 367,000 sheep were imported from Northern Ireland, 270,000 of these were imported for direct slaughter and 97,000 were imported for stores or breeding sheep. A total of 50,000 Irish sheep were exported in 2024.

In relation to global market trends, McMenamin said that there has been a "significant downturn in supplies" in New Zealand with lamb supplies currently 7% lower.

In contrast he highlighted that Australia has seen its flock peak with declines expected in the short to medium term.

Looking to 2025, McMenamin said that there is a continued contraction forecast in the EU sheep flock in 2025 with some growth in EU sheep meat imports expected.

Domestically, the supply trend of lamb numbers arriving later in the season is also expected to continue.