Latest projections suggest that global grain output will rise significantly, both in the current year (2024/25) and during the 12 months that follow.

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), total grains’ production for 2024/25 has been revised up by 4.4Mt from last month and is now forecast to reach 2,306Mt.

This increase is primarily driven by higher wheat production in Australia.

Analysis from the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) details that ending stocks for 2024/25 are expected at 576.6Mt, 1.1Mt higher than in March, mainly due to wheat.

This comes despite a 2.2Mt increase in global consumption, as larger supplies more than offset the rise in demand.

While this suggests that the global grain market will have more reserves at the end of this season than previously thought, the stocks are still expected to be lower than last season’s level.

According to AHDB, with the large projected increase in grain production for 2025/26, ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.4Mt, despite the rise in consumption.

However, any threats to production from adverse weather may affect market dynamics and pricing heading into the next season.

The first projections for 2025/26 show an increase in global grain production, driven by maize, wheat and barley.

Total global grain production is expected to rise by 62.9Mt, reaching 2,368Mt. However, lower stocks carried over from 2024/25 and a rise in demand mean 2025/26 ending stocks are projected up only slightly, by 1.4Mt.

For wheat, the 2025/26 crop is projected to reach a record 806.7Mt, up by 7.6Mt from this season.

This increase is driven by a 13.4Mt recovery in the EU crop and a 1.0Mt rise in Canada, which more than offset declines from other major exporters. 

Due to a 5.7Mt increase in consumption, wheat ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are expected to fall by 6.0Mt.

Maize production is also set to increase, with the 2025/26 crop forecast at 1,269Mt, up by 52.2Mt from this season.

The biggest rises will be in the US, Brazil, and Argentina, with the US crop growing by 16.6Mt to 394Mt. Demand will increase, but not as quickly as supply.

As a result, closing stocks for 2025/26 are expected to rise by 6.0Mt.

Global soya bean production for 2025/26 is forecast at 427.5Mt, up from 417.7Mt this season.

The increase is mainly driven by production rises in Brazil (up 6.0Mt to 173.5Mt) and Argentina (up 2.5Mt to 50.5Mt). 

The higher supply is just enough to offset the projected 16.9Mt rise in consumption, resulting in a 1.4Mt increase in ending stock to 83.2Mt.

The global soya bean supply and demand looks more balanced in 2025/26, though several years of large surpluses mean there are large stocks to fall back on.

Meanwhile, Irish grain production is projected to rise significantly in 2025. This projection is based on the excellent establishment of winter crops last autumn and the fact that all Irish growers reached their target planting acreages in full.

Meanwhile, the spring planting season has gotten off to an almost perfect start with tillage farmers reporting excellent drilling conditions at the present time.