The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is predicting a significant decline in EU grain yields, relative to forecasts made two months ago.
Driving this trend is the content of the EU Commission’s most recent Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS (MARS) report, which trimmed its forecasts of crop yields.
The main factors coming into play here are projected extremes of weather, a mix of overly wet and overly dry conditions, across Europe.
According to AHDB, the report reduced its predicted average EU soft wheat yield from 5.92t/ha in May to 5.86t/ha this month.
This is now in line with the five-year average. Yield prospects for winter barley, rapeseed, maize and sunflowers were also reduced. The forecast for spring barley yields was edged up slightly.
Continued wet weather in parts of France and Germany, plus the Benelux countries has slowed crop growth and farmers’ ability to carry out field work. Pest and disease pressure is said to be high.
Meanwhile, dry weather had a negative impact on winter crop prospects in parts of Hungary and Romania. Heat wave conditions also negatively impacted Spanish winter crops in June, though prospects remain positive overall.
Conditions also remain positive in Poland and northern and eastern Germany. Soil moisture levels are starting to decline, but for now, no adverse effects are reported. The forecast rain for this week would be a positive.
The outlook for Denmark and Sweden is also improved after a wet winter. The report also highlights the impact of continued dry weather on winter yield prospects for Russia and Ukraine.
EU grain
Meanwhile, a heatwave is now expected across much of Europe over the coming days. This is likely to be welcome for crops which have so far been negatively impacted by continued wet weather, especially in key producers France and Germany.
The change in weather would help winter crops ripen by providing much needed radiation or help dry down for those approaching harvest.
However, the warmer temperatures could have a strong negative impact on spring crops. Maize and sunflower crops in parts of eastern Europe and the Balkans are reported to be most at risk.
Ireland’s winter barley and oilseed rape harvests are expected to get underway in about a fortnight. Grain yields are projected to be average at best.