Tirlán: Feed and fertiliser prices 'expected to rise'

Tirlán has indicated that feed and fertiliser prices are expected to rise throughout 2025.

According to the co-op's chair, John Murphy, Tirlán is in "a really strong financial position".

Murphy also said that despite the fact that the co-op was "6-7% behind milk volume in April and May - we only ended up 1% lower than 2023 supplies at the end of the year."

The chair attributed this to the strong back-end farmers experienced as "December prices ended up around 51c/L."

Senior Tirlán management and board members briefed shareholders and suppliers last night (Wednesday, January 22) on a webinar about the co-op's business and plans for the coming year.

According to Seán Molloy, the co-op's chief executive, Tirlán is predicting a "3 to 5% rise in milk growth through 2025 which is a positive outcome".

Molloy also said that Tirlán welcomed 45 new entrants in 2024 and that they look forwarded to welcoming 25 to 30 new entrants in 2025.

He said the co-op "will strive to ensure the best possible returns" for their family farms and suppliers.

Separately Tirlán's chief agri-business officer, Ailish Byrne, also highlighted that Tirlán grew its dairy feed volumes by 28% but in terms of price.

She said: "In terms of the next couple of months, we expect there to be upwards pressure due to strengthening grain markets".

Byrne also voiced her concerns over Donald Trump's return to the White House in the US and his future plans in relation to tariffs as "the majority of feed raw materials are traded in the dollar".

The chief agribusiness officer also spoked during the webinar about the co-ops support for farmers in tough weather conditions - she said they had offered €30/t feed rebate on 136,000t of GAIN dairy feed. The co-op also offered a €60/t calf milk replacer bonus in 2024.

Ailish Byrne confirmed that Tirlán grew fertiliser volume by 8% in 2024 - which she said was in line with the growth in the market.

Byrne expects fertiliser prices to rise in the year ahead - "currently, fertiliser prices are on an upward trajectory mainly driven by the price of energy," she added.

Byrne also outlined that the price of C.A.N is being impacted by the price of energy in Europe, and gas in particular, which has gone up 40% since September.

She also referenced that Iran, who is one of the biggest producers of urea, has cut back production to divert their gas into heating.

She explained that "as a result, Turkey who was a major customer of Iranian fertiliser have now gone to Egypt to fulfill their supply and we get most of our fertiliser from Egypt and Algeria".

Chief ingredients officer for Tirlán, Aoife Murphy, indicated that the outlook for the dairy industry is positive and predicted that food production will have to increase by 60-70% to feed the 9.7 billion population projected for 2050.

Murphy also discussed how the number of people aged over 80 years is projected to triple from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million by 2050 and said that dairy products are going to play a huge role in delivering calcium and protein in the older generations' diet.

The chief ingredients officer believes that "people want to consume more dairy".

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According to Murphy it is estimated that there will be a 20.4 million tonne "milk gap" to meet by 2035 and this "will offer opportunity to develop new products".

In the short-term, Murphy said that "all the fundamentals are relatively balanced as butter has increased by over €2,000/t in 2024".

She also said that milk supply has been modestly higher and there has been an easing in inflation.

However Murphy cautioned that "we have seen China creep back in recent global dairy trades and it has caused a slight tightening" in relation to supply.

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